The Bohol quake is about more than churches

October 17th marked the day of the Shakeout, an opportunity for people to run through the motions of an earthquake scenario to see how they would react in the event of a quake.

Last Thursday's simulation was made a lot more real in light of the 7.2 quake that shook the Philippines two days prior. In the last week there have been over 1900 aftershocks keeping tensions high and people on alert. The story that emerged from the Philippines in the days immediately following the quake was the damage done to many of the historic churches that dot the archipelago of islands. However, the human and community toll is just beginning to come into focus.

To give you an idea, the power released during a magnitude 7 earthquake is equivalent to that of 32 Million Tons of TNT; the largest US test of a Thermonuclear device only yielded the power of a Magnitude 6.0 Quake:

Thermonuclear blast from 'Castle Bravo Test' equivalent to 6.0 Quake

And while the Philippines is no stranger to shaking, having a front row seat along the Ring of Fire, coming on the heels of typhoon after typhoon affecting the north island of Luzon (think Manila), the country was already dealing with more than one crisis that has stretched the capacity and resources of its response capabilities.

Given the increasing impact and broadening of scope the quake has had on public/private enterprises and infrastructure, the Philippines isn't turning away the offers of international aid. However, in order to effectively utilize those offers of help, an understanding of the full scope of the quake remains the top priority. According to the latest sitrep from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council:

• 186 are dead | 583 injured | 11 missing
• Out of more than 600,000 families affected, 80,000+ have been displaced
• Shelter populations: 96 Evacuation Shelters house 22,113 families
• 45,641 homes have been damaged (10,020 destroyed / 35,621 partially damaged)

The sitrep is extremely detailed and while these numbers remain in a quasi-fluid state, given that its been less than a week and some of the areas have been cut off until recently, having detailed situational awareness early on will help focus attention and resources on areas where the needs remain acute.

The Digital Rumor Mill

As was probably the case in India leading up to Phailin's landfall, the challenge of dealing with misinformation via social networks and SMS chains remains a challenge for those managing preparedness and recovery efforts. Philstar.com reported this message causing panic and confusion:

While subsequent messaging from government agencies was sent to refute this message as well as the rumors of a new Volcano forming in the region, unease among residents trying to begin on their road to recovery remains present.

In the face of the disaster rumor mill, ongoing aftershocks, remote areas continuing to need immediate assistance, and the capital city reeling from an intense Typhoon season, those who are responsible for dealing with the aftermath of last week's temblor have their work cut out for them.

After looking at what's happened and continues to happen to the people of the Philippines, waiting and wondering when the ground will settle down...I wonder if those who participated in the Shakeout drills considered how they would deal with a lack of information and what they could do to help prepare mentally for something so unexpected.

For those who have been impacted and those who are there to help, be safe.

This is not a Test...

Tech, people, ideas, disasters...when you clear away all the buzz words, jargon, and platitudes, it's time to see what is actually being done to utilize available tech for the betterment of society. The Social Good Summit brought a lot of ideas to light, and highlighted some of the good work being done by leveraging technology; however, outside of the fight against Malaria, concrete examples of tech in action were few and far between. So when I opened the paper upon my return to Southern California I was surprised to read that Governor Jerry Brown recently signed a bill appropriating roughly $80 million towards the implementation of an earthquake early warning system.

Photo taken from seismicwarning.com

 The installation of this early warning detection system will be a series of sensor arrays that will build upon the existing infrastructure setup by CISN or the California Integrated Seismic Network in Southern CA. Given the looming threat earthquakes pose to the communities in Southern California it's surprising that it's taken this long to put something like this into action. Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, Romania, and China are all countries that have an early warning system in place to detect seismic activity, and while there are no immediate plans to expand this system, it's something the entire West Coast would no doubt benefit from.

Simple explanation

Upon first reading articles stating that $80 Million would be allocated to this project I didn't really see the upside given that Earthquakes define the sudden onset disaster paradigm. So how much of a notice would an "early" warning system give? It turns out that it has the potential to give enough time (in some scenarios close to 60 seconds) to do a lot of good: stop trains, warn people, and help to get them into the right frame of mind to deal with and persevere through a major earthquake event. With the ability to connect with smart phones, highway signage, and through traditional means on TV and radio, the potential of connecting with a large segment of the population is quite high.

In Japan, prior to the the March 2011 9.0 that struck off their coast, mass texts were sent and warnings were automatically broadcast on television and radio, according to some sources, 80 precious seconds of warning were given. That warning coupled with the consistent building standards helped to ameliorate what could've been a significant loss of life and property.

And while this system will no doubt have a positive impact and help save the lives of many when the big one does hit, one has to wonder how vulnerable a system like that is? What happens when something like that misfires? While certainly a false alarm is better than having it preempt a massive earthquake, I'm thinking more along the lines of the probable mental impacts that would be linked to a false alarm.

And while there are potential risks with any new technology, the early warning system has the potential to give people the opportunity to put themselves into a better situation with the time they're given...the only thing left is ensuring that a well-informed public knows what to do with the time they're given.

Man Made Earthquakes

Slipping from the vein of "natural" disasters, the USGS has recently released a study that confirms that Hydraulic Fracturing or "Fracking" wastewater stored in wells can cause traditionally stable faults to slip causing earthquakes.

While the debate of ethics vs economics is waged, the stats that the USGS cites are tough to ignore:

"The number of earthquakes has increased dramatically over the past few years within the central and eastern United States. More than 300 earthquakes above a magnitude 3.0 occurred in the three years from 2010-2012, compared with an average rate of 21 events per year observed from 1967-2000." 

Mother Jones also has an article and a .gif that illustrates the process from well to earthquake:

Drillers inject high-pressure fluids into a hydraulic fracturing well, making slight fissures in the shale that release natural gas. The wastewater that flows back up with the gas is then transported to disposal wells, where it is injected deep into porous rock. Scientists now believe that the pressure and lubrication of that wastewater can cause faults to slip and unleash an earthquake.

Illustration: Leanne Kroll. Animation: Brett Brownell

So what?
While 3.0M quakes rarely, if ever cause damage or injury, the quakes resulting from this method of storing wastewater have been linked to tremors in the 5-6.0M range. From a codes and building perspective, the Midwest is still grappling with how best to offer affordable safe room options in building back smarter that earthquakes and the codes to withstand moderate shaking are not on their radar. As such, the damage from smaller magnitude quakes will continue to impact homeowners because their the exception, not the rule in Tornado Alley. 

House damage in central Oklahoma from the magnitude 5.6 earthquake on Nov. 6, 2011. Research conducted by USGS geophysicist Elizabeth Cochran and her university-based colleagues suggests that this earthquake was induced by injection into deep disposal wells in the Wilzetta North field. Learn more about that research at: http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2013/03/26/G34045.1.abstract. Photo Credit: Brian Sherrod, USGS.

While there are preparations underway to respond to a catastrophic quake similar to the New Madrid Earthquakes of 1811 that caused the Mississippi River to backflow for a period of time, nothing is being done now to protect against smaller, more frequent shaking.

Who's going to Pay for all this?
After a disaster: flood, hurricane, fire, hail or wind storm, the battle between homeowner and insurance company begins. The combination of under-informed homeowner's who don't fully understand their insurance policies and the insurer's who aren't interested in paying out every claim can be a tension-filled dance taking weeks to resolve. Given that coverage for quake damage probably isn't in most of the home and business owner policies, the impacts of these events are going to become a growing concern. Couple this with the fact that there is evidence that these quakes are precipitated by activities undertaken by private companies and the questions like: who should be responsible for paying to cover the damages begin to be asked?

I don't see this being a problem until someone is crushed by a collapsing chimney or there are serious injuries resulting from a man-made quake and then questions about liability and financial compensation will push this to the forefront of the national conversation given how much money the Natural Gas Industry is currently making.