The Future of Cities and Disaster Response

The global population is exploding. More people means more space needed for food production, housing, economic development, etc...generally, more is needed to support more people. This growth however is putting people in harms way; vulnerable populations are living in places known to be at risk for increased impacts to natural hazards because there's no place for them to go (usually). While this rapid human sprawl takes place, industry is continually playing catchup, bending the rules or delaying the implementation of new rules to build faster and bigger in an effort to capitalize on the opportunity that the growth represents while ignoring some of the glaring signs that point to dangers in building economic centers or relocating population centers based on economic incentives without understanding or caring about the risks involved.

source: http://unitedwerecover.wordpress.com/

The graphic above illustrates the move taking place from rural communities to cities, this continued migration to existing population centers is something that requires a re-examination of how we consider planning our future urban developments and what we can do moving forward to make better use of the space we have.

In this great talk given by Vishaan Chakrabarti, he talks about the need for hyperdensification and how it will revolutionize our cities, accommodating for the increase in population sizes work to create more efficient and better organized systems that govern the people living within them.



One of the points made during Chakrabarti's talk is that much of the resource strain/insecurity we face stems from the inefficient way we've designed our surroundings, and that by re-designing  / re-thinking the way we live, embodied by the concept of hyperdensification, we would be addressing the problem of people living in vulnerable areas while expanding available space for additional resource growth and development. While the wholesale buyin to Chakrabarti's ideology isn't what I'm selling, I must admit I find merit and a lot of common sense in his hyperdensification argument.

Hyperdensity as a standalone solution may not seem compelling given the comfort of our lifestyle and the fact the suburbs are a way of life for many, so the below infographic, taken from Tim De Chant's 'Per Mile Square,' puts the challenges of our population growth into perspective. The graphic only pertains to the land use that 7 billion people would require, it doesn't talk about resource consumption. The way we design our cities is only part of the equation, the rate at which resources are consumed would be another major hurdle that would need to be cleared in order for this type of thinking to work. As it stands, if the entire world used as much resource as the US does annually...we would need 4.1 times the resources of earth to sustain the American lifestyle...

http://persquaremile.com/2012/08/08/if-the-worlds-population-lived-like/

Just as the conversation around disasters has migrated from the abstract of "if" to the reality of "when," the challenges associated with accommodating our constantly expanding population will necessitate that changing the conversation around how we live and the way in which we consume resources. And if a move to a more dense way of life is achieved, what will that mean for disaster preparedness, response, and recovery? While Haiti is an extreme example of the impacts of a disaster on a high density urban area, the ongoing response and recovery operations have underscored an urgent need in redefining urban response to disasters. Areas of Christchurch are still closed off due to the continuing dangers the damage of the 2011 earthquakes.

Dense urban environments present their own set of challenges that compound the already difficult and chaotic response landscape, and if we are intentional in our move towards more densely packed urban environments, being structured in our approach to providing services pre/post disaster need to be taken into account as well.

Puerto Rico Earthquake Swarm

On January 13th news outlets reported a 6.4 quake along the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and just as the world recently became acquainted with the 'polar vortex' (previously known as a cold front), armchair seismologists were introduced to the Puerto Rico Trench. Lying just north of Puerto Rico, stretching roughly 800 miles, this topographical ditch in the Atlantic has been around for a long time, but a local awareness of plate tectonics and the forces at work that can produce earthquakes and subsequent tsunami's have not. Just as the unfamiliar term "storm surge" confused many in the Philippines and resulted in many staying in harms way as Super Typhoon Yolanda made landfall, a lack of familiarity with Earthquakes and Tsunami's in Puerto Rico mean that there is a lower level of awareness around quake preparedness. Then factor in that the last major earthquake to hit the island was in 1918 and you've got a recipe for an unmotivated public with no frame of reference when it comes to earthquakes.

And if you think that a one-off 6.5 quake isn't going to change attitudes, you're probably right, but what about the other 400+ quakes the region has experienced in the last week? While seismologists are quick to tell you that hundreds of earthquakes happen around the world everyday, the clustering and frequency of the earthquake activity around Puerto Rico has to make you wonder if something else is going on.

Compare the above to the earthquake activity in the last week in southern CA:

Does all of this seismic activity in Puerto Rico point to a larger earthquake event on the horizon? In most circumstances one would look to history for some context, but earthquake swarms, like the ones near Puerto Rico are not that well understood and answers to what is currently happening are not readily available by looking to the past. When a swarm generates a lot of small tremors, they usually fizzle out, but scientists don't understand why, so the answer to whether or not the Puerto Rico Trench is just getting warmed up remains to be seen.

While the causes and ultimate outcomes of the increased seismic activity remain a mystery, these quakes offer an opportunity to talk about the natural hazards Puerto Rico faces...especially earthquakes and tsunami's. One of the challenges in preparedness is to make people believe that the event in question can and will happen to them. For those in Puerto Rico, I hope that the attention the quakes are receiving will push these uncomfortable "what if" conversations that are generally avoided to the forefront of daily conversations. It's only when disasters are talked about that questions are asked and answers are sought. And while the constant rumblings of the earth make for sleepless nights, it's a reminder that we need to stay vigilant and continually press for greater engagement of our community partners so that when something does happen, people are prepared and communities are ready to recover.

Northridge 20 years later

At 4:31am 20 years ago residents of Southern California were jolted awake by a 6.7 magnitude quake that lasted for 30 seconds. What was soon dubbed the Northridge Earthquake was a reminder for many residents that Southern California is firmly between the cross hairs of the San Andreas Fault.

The ABC coverage above shows what happened: neighborhoods on fire, no electricity, no water, elevated freeway collapse, and a lot of uncertainty. But that was 20 years ago, that couldn't happen now...could it? 

In this article "Buildings Vulnerable 20 years after Northridge Quake" Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is quoted as saying:

"We're as well prepared as any city in America, which is to say we're unprepared...I don't think anybody in America is very well prepared ... There's always going to be an earthquake we can't be prepared for."

And while that isn't the resounding vote of confidence you hope for from the Mayor of a city with more than 12 million people a stone's throw from the San Andreas fault...you have to wonder, if the Mayor has this type of attitude, then why are hundreds of thousands of dollars being spent annually to fund Regional Catastrophic Planning Teams ($857,000 in 2011/2012 (see pg 106) and upgraded Emergency Operations Centers ($400,000)?

If you look at my completely unscientific method of earthquake prediction you'll notice that the last major earthquake before Northridge was the Sylmar quake in '71--a 6.6 in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains. Sylmar was roughly 20 years before Northridge and today marks the passage of 20 years since, and it feels like disaster amnesia has wholly enveloped Southern California...so much so that the mayor seems to have a "well...what can ya do?" mindset.

Growing a culture of preparedness in a diverse region of 12+ million people is no small feat, but when a significant number of residential structures continue to remain at risk 20 years later, the supply chains and infrastructure that criss-cross the San Andreas remain vulnerable, and preparedness is a foreign concept to a generation of people that weren't alive in '94, it becomes apparent that there is a lot to do and it feels like we're living on borrowed time.

So unless you're an engineer or have deep pockets and can throw money at this, I encourage you to take a few simple steps to help prepare:

• Buy some MRE's (Meals ready to eat)
• Get some Water: 1 gallon / day / person (3-5 day supply -- more is better)
• Flashlights and batteries (candles tend to burn homes down during aftershocks)
• A hand crank radio for news updates and if needed, a charge of your phone
• Have some cash, preferably smaller bills (not all ATM's will be knocked out but why take that chance?)
• Extra Medication / eye glasses 
• Know where your water and gas meters are and how to turn them off (fires will be a major problem)
• Create a meeting point with your friends / family so that if you're separated you know where to go and when to be there

There is more you can and should do, but this is a start. Listen to the podcast below for 2 surprising facts about the most common injuries after Northridge and how you can prevent them from happening to you.

Being an alarmist never does anyone any good, but you also want to be ready...an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Shelter from the sky

To reinforce the powerful role innovation plays in transforming how people receive and perceive aid, I wanted to share another innovative idea that I came across in December. Industrial designer Adem Önalan won the Red Dot Design Award (I'd never heard of it either...but apparently it's a big deal) for what he calls "Lifebox":

Photo: Fast Company / Co.Exist

Lifebox is the product of talking to survivors of disasters and relief agencies to better understand if there was a solution that could fill some of the existing gaps in the delivery of aid following an event. The result of those conversations coupled with Adem's creativity yielded Lifebox and its 3 iterations: Air, Land, Water. Air can dropped from a plane with a built in parachute that doubles as the roof of the shelter, Water transforms into a raft, and Land is a straightforward tent (with the added benefit of a foam floor) that can be connected to other Lifeboxes to form larger rooms. The boxes are designed with 2 weeks of supplies for 4 people to cover the gaps that become exposed when critical infrastructure and access to areas are hampered by a disaster. 

Photo: Fast Company / Co.Exist. Lifebox: Land

While I like the idea and the fact that it's more of a holistic solution to an immediate need taking into account different methods of delivery, I believe that its "out-of-the-box" nature could create challenges in ensuring its equitable distribution amongst vulnerable populations. I could see Lifeboxes being hoarded or sold in the chaos and confusion of early response activities. However, given the potential upside of the product, I'm confident that figuring out an equitable distribution model is something that bright minds can come up with fairly easily. I would also consider regionalizing the rations contained inside Lifebox to ensure that its culturally appropriate for the populations its helping.

But what I like most about the Lifebox is that it reminds me that just because things are the way they are...doesn't mean they have to stay that way. Change doesn't come easy, especially when people are comfortable in "the way it's always been done." There is power in innovation and sometimes all we need is a little nudge to get us headed down that path...I hope that "The First 72 Hours Challenge" and the uniqueness of Adem's Lifebox solution get your creative juices flowing to re-think how we do things and explore a the potential of doing things differently.

In disasters, 72 is the magic number...

The First 72 hours following an event, depending on the size of the impacted area and the severity of the event itself, are usually a black hole when it comes to information and action. The only activities that are taking place are search and rescue, and that falls to (depending on size, scope, geography) a handful of professionals, friends, family, or passersby of those in need. This is a time fraught with uncertainty on almost everything: number of dead / injured, missing persons, damage estimates to public and private structures, impacts to critical infrastructure, greatest unmet needs, which organizations are sending personnel where, credibility of information through formal and informal channels, etc...

It's in the first 72 hours that the level of preparation of those impacted and those responsible for organizing a response comes into play. For individuals and municipalities with lower levels of preparedness, the first 72 hours are chaotic and disjointed and the black hole analogy usually applies. For those that have a history with disasters or have taken steps to strengthen their levels of preparedness, the first 72 hours are a time where people take their places; the emergency management machine whirs to life and the activities of response kick into gear.

It's no coincidence that much of the preparedness literature tells you to have supplies for 3 days...it's because that's how long it usually takes for services to reach those impacted. Just look at San Francisco's preparedness campaign: www.sf72.org, it's based around the 72 hour milestone. Due to the 'just in time' supply chain models that many grocery stores employ to save on warehousing costs, 72 hours is usually the amount of time before shelves run bare. In the case of Super Typhoon Yolanda, the scope of the event made the provision of aid a challenge that took 10 days or longer in some areas to solve. Remember that it's during this time when most communications and cellular infrastructure is down or overloaded, and the power to charge the batteries on which those devices rely, is in short supply. 

The bottom line is that even with our advances in technology and early warning systems, the first 72 hours after an event represent a challenge for preparedness and response practitioner's, and it's with that attitude in mind that unicef and socialab created "The Global Innovation Challenge: The First 72 Hours." 

This challenge is open to any and all with ideas on how to address the needs of Children and Families following a humanitarian disaster, with a focus on one of the following 4 areas:

1. Energy
2. Healthcare
3. Information Communication
4. Water / Food

The idea/solution can be a product, a new technology or process, or an improvement on existing technology or process.

If you have a brilliant idea that can help crack the nut that the first 72 hours following a disaster represent, logon and share it...who knows, you may win $15,000 in seed capital and an opportunity to work with unicef and socialab to bring it to life.

Thanks to my Chilean Startup friend Mr. Darren Camas for bringing this unique contest to my attention.

A front row seat for destruction

As the technology to record every moment of our lives grows in its ubiquity, an unfortunate byproduct are those who choose to put themselves in harms way to capture something that most would (and should) be running from. The results are often dramatic and usually come at the risk of the individual behind the camera.

Examples of this can be seen in the growth of Tornado chasing, the insistence of weather personalities reporting from coastal areas as hurricanes make landfall, the people who flock to the beach to see a tsunami, or as the below image illustrates, those who want to see a phenomenon called a Tidal Bore...

What is it about the power of a storm that makes us lose our minds? What is it about wanting/needing to see the destructive power of nature, even after watching videos of what the true power of nature can do?

Why are there people hanging out in the yard of the school as the ocean surges?

I'm not sure I would've had the presence of mind to take a video

These people went to the beach to watch a tsunami come ashore! While the wave height was not forecast to be large...they're called disasters for a reason...

Happy New Year!

A happy 2014 to all of you out there in the blogosphere.

I realize that it's been a few weeks since my last posting and want you to know that my radio silence is due to there not being enough hours in the day.

I hope everyone had a great holiday season and are looking forward to a happy, healthy 2014.

More to come...