Puerto Rico Earthquake Swarm

On January 13th news outlets reported a 6.4 quake along the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and just as the world recently became acquainted with the 'polar vortex' (previously known as a cold front), armchair seismologists were introduced to the Puerto Rico Trench. Lying just north of Puerto Rico, stretching roughly 800 miles, this topographical ditch in the Atlantic has been around for a long time, but a local awareness of plate tectonics and the forces at work that can produce earthquakes and subsequent tsunami's have not. Just as the unfamiliar term "storm surge" confused many in the Philippines and resulted in many staying in harms way as Super Typhoon Yolanda made landfall, a lack of familiarity with Earthquakes and Tsunami's in Puerto Rico mean that there is a lower level of awareness around quake preparedness. Then factor in that the last major earthquake to hit the island was in 1918 and you've got a recipe for an unmotivated public with no frame of reference when it comes to earthquakes.

And if you think that a one-off 6.5 quake isn't going to change attitudes, you're probably right, but what about the other 400+ quakes the region has experienced in the last week? While seismologists are quick to tell you that hundreds of earthquakes happen around the world everyday, the clustering and frequency of the earthquake activity around Puerto Rico has to make you wonder if something else is going on.

Compare the above to the earthquake activity in the last week in southern CA:

Does all of this seismic activity in Puerto Rico point to a larger earthquake event on the horizon? In most circumstances one would look to history for some context, but earthquake swarms, like the ones near Puerto Rico are not that well understood and answers to what is currently happening are not readily available by looking to the past. When a swarm generates a lot of small tremors, they usually fizzle out, but scientists don't understand why, so the answer to whether or not the Puerto Rico Trench is just getting warmed up remains to be seen.

While the causes and ultimate outcomes of the increased seismic activity remain a mystery, these quakes offer an opportunity to talk about the natural hazards Puerto Rico faces...especially earthquakes and tsunami's. One of the challenges in preparedness is to make people believe that the event in question can and will happen to them. For those in Puerto Rico, I hope that the attention the quakes are receiving will push these uncomfortable "what if" conversations that are generally avoided to the forefront of daily conversations. It's only when disasters are talked about that questions are asked and answers are sought. And while the constant rumblings of the earth make for sleepless nights, it's a reminder that we need to stay vigilant and continually press for greater engagement of our community partners so that when something does happen, people are prepared and communities are ready to recover.

Northridge 20 years later

At 4:31am 20 years ago residents of Southern California were jolted awake by a 6.7 magnitude quake that lasted for 30 seconds. What was soon dubbed the Northridge Earthquake was a reminder for many residents that Southern California is firmly between the cross hairs of the San Andreas Fault.

The ABC coverage above shows what happened: neighborhoods on fire, no electricity, no water, elevated freeway collapse, and a lot of uncertainty. But that was 20 years ago, that couldn't happen now...could it? 

In this article "Buildings Vulnerable 20 years after Northridge Quake" Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is quoted as saying:

"We're as well prepared as any city in America, which is to say we're unprepared...I don't think anybody in America is very well prepared ... There's always going to be an earthquake we can't be prepared for."

And while that isn't the resounding vote of confidence you hope for from the Mayor of a city with more than 12 million people a stone's throw from the San Andreas fault...you have to wonder, if the Mayor has this type of attitude, then why are hundreds of thousands of dollars being spent annually to fund Regional Catastrophic Planning Teams ($857,000 in 2011/2012 (see pg 106) and upgraded Emergency Operations Centers ($400,000)?

If you look at my completely unscientific method of earthquake prediction you'll notice that the last major earthquake before Northridge was the Sylmar quake in '71--a 6.6 in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains. Sylmar was roughly 20 years before Northridge and today marks the passage of 20 years since, and it feels like disaster amnesia has wholly enveloped Southern California...so much so that the mayor seems to have a "well...what can ya do?" mindset.

Growing a culture of preparedness in a diverse region of 12+ million people is no small feat, but when a significant number of residential structures continue to remain at risk 20 years later, the supply chains and infrastructure that criss-cross the San Andreas remain vulnerable, and preparedness is a foreign concept to a generation of people that weren't alive in '94, it becomes apparent that there is a lot to do and it feels like we're living on borrowed time.

So unless you're an engineer or have deep pockets and can throw money at this, I encourage you to take a few simple steps to help prepare:

• Buy some MRE's (Meals ready to eat)
• Get some Water: 1 gallon / day / person (3-5 day supply -- more is better)
• Flashlights and batteries (candles tend to burn homes down during aftershocks)
• A hand crank radio for news updates and if needed, a charge of your phone
• Have some cash, preferably smaller bills (not all ATM's will be knocked out but why take that chance?)
• Extra Medication / eye glasses 
• Know where your water and gas meters are and how to turn them off (fires will be a major problem)
• Create a meeting point with your friends / family so that if you're separated you know where to go and when to be there

There is more you can and should do, but this is a start. Listen to the podcast below for 2 surprising facts about the most common injuries after Northridge and how you can prevent them from happening to you.

Being an alarmist never does anyone any good, but you also want to be ready...an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

The Great Shakeout

On Oct 17th almost 18 million people will participate in one of the largest organized annual preparedness events in the US, the Great Shakeout.

India's well coordinated preparedness and aggressive early recovery cleanup illustrates the power of having plans and how exercising those plans can reduce the loss of life and minimize confusion around roles and responsibilities in the aftermath of an event. The Great Shakeout is an opportunity to spend some time thinking through the "what if's" of an earthquake. It's a chance to take an honest look at your kit (if you have one) and figure out what still needs to be added, as well as going over the plan: where to meet and when, collecting copies of important documents, etc... I'm convinced that one of the main reasons people ignore preparedness is because it's uncomfortable to think about so it's pushed from our minds. This delay only works against our best interests when an earthquake strikes. While the event gives individuals a chance to take stock, it's also an opportunity for municipalities to go over their planning and think through how preparedness can be better messaged and what response and recovery will look like between local and state partners, etc...

The Shakeout is an opportunity to ask the "stupid" questions, to figure out what you'll do, and take some time to learn about what your village, city, or town plans to do to help minimize loss of life and property.

Are you in an area where there is the risk of and Earthquake? Are you ready? www.shakeout.org

Bigger isn't always better

As part of my history in responding to disasters I've had the good fortune to spend time in Haiti, albeit under difficult circumstances. One of those times followed the January 12, 2010 Earthquake...which is why reading the report issued by the GAO was and continues to be so infuriating.

The Governmental Accountability Office released an interim report on the efforts of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) 3 years on...remember to take deep breaths. 

Haiti Reconstruction: USAID Infrastructure Projects Have Had Mixed Results and Face Sustainability Challenges 

The Highlights:

• Of the $651 million Congress allocated for Haiti reconstruction to the USAID, only $204 million has been spent three years later. And much of that has gone to questionable use.
• USAID is building a power plant, port, and industrial park all of which the GAO has concluded will not be able to be maintained upon their completion without continued outside support. Not only that but the projects were poorly mapped out and budgeted for and will likely require an additional $120-$190 Million to complete.
• USAID has reduced its permanent housing construction targets in Haiti. USAID initially underestimated the funding needed for its New Settlements housing program. As a result, the agency increased the amount allocated by 65 percent, from $59 million to $97 million, and decreased the projected number of houses to be built by over 80 percent, from 15,000 to 2,649. The estimated number of beneficiaries was reduced from 75,000 to 90,000 to its current estimates of approximately 13,200 to 15,900.

The Report makes the following recommendation:

The GAO recommends that Congress consider requiring regular reports from the State Department on USAID’s progress. It also recommended that USAID hire an engineer to oversee construction of the port and suggested the organization put community support programs in place for housing development projects.

Excuse me...I need to go scream.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/25/194956/gao-slams-usaids-haiti-rebuilding.html#.UdFZLD4Y1rU#storylink=cpy

How is this possible? How was regular reporting and proper fiduciary oversight not part of the agreement in receiving $651 Million dollars?! I realize that implementing programs of this size and scope is not easy, especially in Haiti where nothing goes according to plan, corruption is commonplace, and the government wants things like flush toilets in new houses with no municipal septic system to process the waste produced. Be that as it may, the findings in the report do not paint a happy picture, and I hope for the sake of those still living in tent camps struggling with getting back to life as it was can expect better now that more eyes will be on recovery programming.