Quantifying Damage - Response by Numbers

Credit: Noel Celis / AFP / Getty Images

What is there to say that hasn't already been said? A tragedy has befallen the Philippines archipelago, as of 6am Monday 11/11/13 the NDRRMC is reporting:

• 255 Individuals have died | 71 Injured | 38 Missing
• 9,679,059 Persons Affected
• 23,190 Homes impacted (13,473 destroyed | 9,717 damaged)

A greater level of detail can be found here: http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/

And while the statistic that 10,000 lives have possibly been lost is dominating headlines, the fact remains that you can point to a document that several federal agencies stand behind with a concrete number 4 days after an event of historic proportions that says otherwise.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the Dept. of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), Dept. of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and the rest of the agencies that populate these reports are an example of the power timely information can have following an event. While the numbers are in flux as this is an ongoing humanitarian emergency, the information that has been made available is very detailed and provides insight that many response organizations are not used to having at this stage. Usually emergency response is typified by a vacuum of reliable information…Day 4 of response to Yolanda seems to be bucking that trend with agencies providing a comprehensive level of information on a range of aspects central to response and aiding in the creation of situational awareness.

Situational Awareness is key to decision-making and resource allocation and its absence is one of the issues that is repeatedly brought up when emergency management and nonprofits talk about the how to enhance response and early recovery operations. Situational awareness is dictated by how quickly information is funneled up from the ground to create a picture of how events have impacted an area. The detailed information coming from heavily impacted provinces in the Philippines has and continues to be incredible. And while numbers help to give a snapshot of what's going on, it's breaking that information down into data that aid organizations can use that remains illusive. 

With the understanding that numbers aren't representative of the whole story, imagine if counties could produce detailed situation reports days following an event and how that could impact response efforts. At it stands, unless a disaster is federally declared prior to and event or while it's ongoing, gathering the necessary information to support a federal declaration request can take weeks. If municipalities had the ability to compile comprehensive damage information similar to what’s coming out of the Philippines, the speed at which a Governor could submit a declaration request could be considerably shortened and ultimately expedite the delivery of federal aid when applicable.

While numbers can tell you that 90% of the structures in a community have have been destroyed, they can't tell you how best to go about cleaning up or rebuilding a sense of community. For all the advances in technology that create greater efficiencies in communications, coordination, and reporting, the work done to clean up and build back following a disaster remains firmly on the shoulders of people.

In lieu of being on the ground, I hope that aid will begin to flow quickly to the areas of greatest need and those who need help receive it.

The Bohol quake is about more than churches

October 17th marked the day of the Shakeout, an opportunity for people to run through the motions of an earthquake scenario to see how they would react in the event of a quake.

Last Thursday's simulation was made a lot more real in light of the 7.2 quake that shook the Philippines two days prior. In the last week there have been over 1900 aftershocks keeping tensions high and people on alert. The story that emerged from the Philippines in the days immediately following the quake was the damage done to many of the historic churches that dot the archipelago of islands. However, the human and community toll is just beginning to come into focus.

To give you an idea, the power released during a magnitude 7 earthquake is equivalent to that of 32 Million Tons of TNT; the largest US test of a Thermonuclear device only yielded the power of a Magnitude 6.0 Quake:

Thermonuclear blast from 'Castle Bravo Test' equivalent to 6.0 Quake

And while the Philippines is no stranger to shaking, having a front row seat along the Ring of Fire, coming on the heels of typhoon after typhoon affecting the north island of Luzon (think Manila), the country was already dealing with more than one crisis that has stretched the capacity and resources of its response capabilities.

Given the increasing impact and broadening of scope the quake has had on public/private enterprises and infrastructure, the Philippines isn't turning away the offers of international aid. However, in order to effectively utilize those offers of help, an understanding of the full scope of the quake remains the top priority. According to the latest sitrep from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council:

• 186 are dead | 583 injured | 11 missing
• Out of more than 600,000 families affected, 80,000+ have been displaced
• Shelter populations: 96 Evacuation Shelters house 22,113 families
• 45,641 homes have been damaged (10,020 destroyed / 35,621 partially damaged)

The sitrep is extremely detailed and while these numbers remain in a quasi-fluid state, given that its been less than a week and some of the areas have been cut off until recently, having detailed situational awareness early on will help focus attention and resources on areas where the needs remain acute.

The Digital Rumor Mill

As was probably the case in India leading up to Phailin's landfall, the challenge of dealing with misinformation via social networks and SMS chains remains a challenge for those managing preparedness and recovery efforts. Philstar.com reported this message causing panic and confusion:

While subsequent messaging from government agencies was sent to refute this message as well as the rumors of a new Volcano forming in the region, unease among residents trying to begin on their road to recovery remains present.

In the face of the disaster rumor mill, ongoing aftershocks, remote areas continuing to need immediate assistance, and the capital city reeling from an intense Typhoon season, those who are responsible for dealing with the aftermath of last week's temblor have their work cut out for them.

After looking at what's happened and continues to happen to the people of the Philippines, waiting and wondering when the ground will settle down...I wonder if those who participated in the Shakeout drills considered how they would deal with a lack of information and what they could do to help prepare mentally for something so unexpected.

For those who have been impacted and those who are there to help, be safe.