A way forward for the Philippines

You can only look at so many images of flattened homes and decimated communities or hit the refresh button so many times for updated information on damage estimates before it gets too macabre. While finding fault in this is hard, as I find infographics to be a useful and engaging tool for communicating information, the slick packaging of human misery doesn't feel appropriate at this juncture. I realize the inherent hypocrisy in this sentiment given that my last post praised the Filipino government for quickly publishing quantifiable data on the storms impacts, and it's precisely that information that makes communication pieces like this one possible...but what can I say, I'm fickle.

So instead of waiting for updated stats to tell me what I already know, that this is a major humanitarian crisis, I began to think about how the Mid-Atlantic region would fair if a storm like Yolanda were to hit. The tale of the tape shows that Sandy was a Cat 1 storm with sustained winds of 75mph, and Yolanda a Cat 4/5 with sustained winds of 150 mph with gusts over 170mph. But the damage in the Mid-Atlantic wasn't due to the winds, it was due to the storm surge; Sandy brought a surge of roughly 10ft to coastal communities and went inland for distances measured in blocks. Yolanda's surge was thought to be between 15-20ft and in some cases wiped whole island communities off the map. Drawing these comparisons doesn't change the reality millions of people in the Philippines or the mid-Atlantic region are facing, but it does help by providing perspective. And while far from scientific, the below image is what Yolanda would look like if it made landfall along the eastern seaboard--covering roughly 1200 miles while Sandy's diameter was approx. 950 miles.

Credit: Derek Medlin / Google Earth

So what's being done? If you go by the media's account, aid is slow to arrive and there is confusion on the ground. Some articles go as far as to chastise aid agencies for not learning from past events: The Haiti Earthquake or The Japan Quake/Tsunami. Articles alluding to the fact that response agencies are fumbling the ball resulting in delays in the disbursement of aid began as frustrations amongst survivors reached a fever pitch. What is often overlooked is that it's day 5 following a major event with a significant impact not only on the fabric of communities, but on the infrastructure that allows those communities to function on a daily basis. When that infrastructure is disrupted, its restoration and the delivery of aid that follows will take longer than a business week to bring online.

In addition to the push to reconnect supply chains that will facilitate the flow of aid, OCHA has created an action plan, with objectives, goals, dollar requirements, and lead agencies charged with making it happen. So I guess if you come up with a comprehensive plan to begin to bring order to the chaos, you get a pass and can publish infographics whenever you want.

The plan is based on the cluster system being implemented and while the plan will undoubtedly go through revisions, it's nice to read about a way forward, about a plan to deal with the monumental effort of bringing normalcy back to these impacted communities. I hope that the issuing of this plan marks a turning point in the reporting on the event and that news agencies will choose to dig a little deeper and find stories that highlight a way forward rather than to rehash the horrible tragedy that's already happened.

https://philippines.humanitarianresponse.info/document/typhoon-haiyan-action-plan

Learning from the past is how we avoid having history repeat itself, but now is not the time for finger pointing or assigning blame. Now is the time to use the resources available to ensure that no further loss of life occurs while laying the foundation for a response to an event that will take years to fully recover from.

Shock Troops of Disaster

While I finish the last piece in the Sandy Anniversary Trilogy, I thought I would share a 10 minute video on the impacts of the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938. There's lots of great footage of the storm's impacts and how a region recovered before there was National VOAD, FEMA, or NOAA. While essentially a WPA promotional video, it does a great job of capturing some of the tremendous impacts the hurricane had on communities across Long Island and New England.

https://archive.org/details/ShockTro1938

Could this be the worst hurricane season on record?

You feel that? It's getting a little chilly outside, especially if you're in the northeast. The leaves are just beginning to change and it's officially fall. As people put their thoughts of a possible Indian summer to bed and takeout their jackets and boots, they also generally think that they've dodged a bullet when it comes to Hurricane season.

Now you might be laughing to yourself saying that I'm a moron! Don't you remember Hurricane Sandy? How can you say that people have put those thoughts to bed when the Anniversary is right around the corner--at the END of October? And that Hurricane season doesn't end until the END of November? And you'd be right, all of those things are true save for the moron part; we still have a lot of Hurricane season to anxiously wait through and there's a lot of media reminding us of that fact:

• http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/14/us/hurricane-season-prediction-mystery/index.html
• http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/does-august-lull-atlantic-hurricane-activity-mean-we-wont-be-having
• http://www.eqecat.com/blog/hurricanes/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-august-2013/
• http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurricane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/
• http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/09/07/quiet-hurricane-season/2776845/

When you read through these articles asking what's going on, you can almost sense that they're pissed, an almost "What Gives?" attitude; you promised us an above average hurricane season...remember?" 

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

Yet here we sit...waiting, wondering, silently cursing the powers that forecast our fate...and we do this because we can't do anything else. 

So, how can I say that this may be the worst hurricane season on record if nothing has happened yet? Well, it was a tad dramatic to say "the worst" but it's pretty bad. Remember the heeded warnings that preceded Hurricane Irene? Shutdown subways, runs on food, and people getting out of town? It was a major inconvenience, but people did it. When Irene fell short of producing forecasted impacts, people felt lied to and the city took a hit financially from cancelled events and shuttered infrastructure. From a preparedness perspective it was a huge win though, the city was prepared for a potential storm and pulled through relatively unscathed. What happened though was that it eroded the confidence in the forecasting models and in the decision-makers who urged people get ready...because nothing happened.

Fast forward to Sandy coming up the eastern seaboard a year later and a similar situation unfolded. Warnings were communicated, subways were shuttered, and on the barrier islands evacuation notices were issued. However, because people felt burned by the false alarm that was Irene, those warnings fell on deaf ears--a, 'fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me' mentality.

So in saying that this is potentially the "worst" hurricane season on record is due to the potentially damaging ramifications from a psychological perspective. People have short memories when it comes to disasters, a sort of disaster amnesia. Right now hurricane season has the attention of many more people than it would otherwise, with the proverbial preparedness pump primed for people to exercise plans made in preparation of, or in response to Sandy. If nothing happens this season, that would be fantastic, but I believe that the amnesia will begin to set in and the focus on individual, family, and small business preparedness will fade into the ether--which is not so fantastic.

Getting people to take notice of preparedness activities and integrate them into their lives is one of the greatest challenges we face as practitioners. It's unfortunate that it takes an event where loss of life and property occur for people to take notice and more importantly, take action. It's an even more unfortunate that the action it fuels is so short-lived. Without a constant reminder of why being prepared is so important, people forget, because it's easier and less overwhelming to let it slip away than to remain vigilant.

For those who are still in the process of recovery in the mid-Atlantic region, Sandy is not a distant memory but an everyday reality. The luxury of letting what happened slip away is not a possibility, so while the limited physical impacts of a quiet hurricane season are wonderful, the psychological toll it takes on how people view preparedness can make the quiet years some of the most damaging.  

...and Hurricane Season is upon us

As if the non-stop tornados, heavy rains, flooding, red flag warnings, and general misery mother nature is throwing at us at the moment wasn't enough...today marks the beginning of a 5 month period known as Hurricane season -- joy.

Hurricane Prep Week Topics

With the build up and aftermath of Superstorm Sandy still fresh in the minds of those in the mid-atlantic region where repair and rebuild activities are just beginning to hit their stride, Hurricane Season is an unwelcome reminder of still healing wounds.

And while the peak month of August is still 60 days away, FEMA and local emergency management agencies spent the last 7 days reinforcing best practices in preparation for what NOAA is forecasting to be an above average season for Hurricane activity.

Given the prep, the forecasting, the grant dollars available, and cyclical nature that the next 5 months represents...why aren't at risk states better prepared? I ask because during Hurricane Isaac, a storm that made landfall 7 years to the day, more or less in the same areas where Hurricane Katrina made landfall, areas where there should've been a plan forged in the chaos and horrible tragedy that was Hurricane Katrina, was disarray and confusion. There was uncertainty around roles and responsibilities, around the best ways to coordinate response activities, and an overwhelming sense of disbelief.

Disasters by their nature are confusing, chaotic, and stressful...but with the seemingly endless practice that the emergency management community is getting, and ultimately the opportunities to share what's working and what's not via: conferences, papers, LLIS.gov, and picking up the phone and talking to someone who's gone through it, it isn't a herculean leap to want to see improvements.

I know that disaster response doesn't follow a linear progression and that the best laid plans are often tossed aside because the [insert disaster type here] doesn't adhere to the construct of the plan. With that said, we've been doing this long enough that instituting some sort of benchmarking system to measure response and recovery could be created. Not to shame or chastise, but to learn what works for a particular community and grow it, integrate it into future planning to help mitigate the threat of a groundhog day scenario as communities stare down the next 5 months of potential Hurricane activity.

It's not all doom and gloom, some communities are adapting and adopting mechanisms that will allow for the tracking and sharing of a detailed recovery plan. The Recovery Diva posted this re: The Joplin recovery; lots of good information here and I encourage you to read the fact sheet, a great tool and template I hope other communities adopt...communities that may be facing the daunting task of picking up the pieces following a similar situation now and in the future.