Cyclone Phailin heralds the winds of change

It was as if the news media was so starved from a lack of Hurricane activity in the Atlantic that when Cyclone Phailin quickly intensified from a Category 1 to a 4 in just over 24 hours, the internet exploded at the prospect of dramatic news coverage. Never mind that Super Typhoons Utor and Usagi in the Pacific caused widespread damage earlier this year to little domestic fanfare. 

What captured everyone's attention is that Cyclone Phailin underwent explosive intensification, leaving little time for Indian Authorities to alert the densely populated coast where Phailin was due to strike. With memories of the 'Himalayan Tsunami' that killed thousands in June still fresh on everyone's minds, the prospect of a Category 4 Cyclone hitting the coast seemed impossible. Couple this with the fact that the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center was calling into question the reports the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) was issuing, claiming they were downplaying the speed and the intensity of the storms potential impacts, and it looked as if a major humanitarian crisis were about to unfold before our eyes.

photo credit: Luke Villapaz 

In a bold move, the State government of Odisha publicized their intent to make Cyclone Phailin a 'zero casualty' event and conducted the mass evacuation of all citizens within 5km of the coast. Local leaders went through towns and villages aggressively moving close to 1 million individuals and families out of harms way to the network of shelters built after the 1999 Cyclone that killed 10,000.

The outcome is that the number of deaths reported are at 14 and expected to climb but not by much, major thoroughfares were cleared of debris within 24 hours, train service has been restored, and the power to much of the impacted states will begin to be restored on Monday. 

While damage assessments are ongoing and the true scope of Phailin's impacts are still being calculated, it would appear that India has managed to take lessons learned from the past and apply them to a current crisis and actually have it pay dividends. India has just proved to the world that investing in disaster preparedness is a worthwhile proposition. Even in the face of governmental turnover, political infighting, a massive geographic area in which to implement the plan, and over a decade to let disaster amnesia sink in, the rapid evacuation of close to a million people and what appears to be the speedy restoration of access and infrastructure point to the fact that India got it right.

As reports emerge about what recovery will look like, it'll be interesting to read how the increase in mobile technology aided in the delivery of critical information that helped expedite evacuations.

It also raises the question, while we're still less than a decade out from Katrina making landfall, how would we fare if faced with another Katrina-like storm hitting the Gulf Coast? Would we rise to the occasion, learning from the past or are we doomed to make the same mistakes again and again?

Tropical Storm Karen

Tropical Storm Karen is roughly 200 miles off the Gulf Coast and is forecast to make landfall in the next 24-48 hours. Governor's of Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi have already declared state's of emergency to facilitate the movement of personnel and physical assets, and have strongly encouraged that families along the gulf coast be prepared.

Anticipated Rainfall                                                                                     Anticipated Path

The Mayor of Grand Isle, LA has issued a mandatory evacuation order and evacuation orders have been issued for Lafourche Parish, much of Plaquemines Parish, and parts of southeast New Orleans, were told to be out of their homes before nightfall.

Here is a clip of Thursday's White House daily briefing where Spokesman Jay Carney said that FEMA is recalling personnel in preparation for the storm so that a response can be launched should the situation call for it.

The current forecast has Karen spinning with sustained winds of 45-50mph and dropping between 4-6" of rain. Localized flooding fueled by a 3-5' storm surge is anticipated in low-lying areas but this is nothing that the Gulf Coast and its residents haven't dealt with before.

As someone who advocates for a greater emphasis be put on preparedness, I'm happy to see that State's and municipalities are taking the threat of this storm seriously; however, given Karen's waning strength, the recall of FEMA personnel, and the mandatory evacuations, the general attention surrounding the storm seems incongruous with its forecasted impacts.

I imagine that one of the hardest things to balance in the position of an emergency manager or other position with decision-making authority, is knowing when to hit the panic button with enough time so that people can evacuate vs. when to lay back and play it conservatively. There are costs associated with declaring state's of emergency, for activating auxiliary personnel and pre-staging assets, and when budgets are already tight, incurring un-budgeted incremental costs can be tough to swallow. Then you have to factor in the gamble you're taking with the trust of the public, and as we've seen in the Mid-Atlantic region with Irene and Sandy, trust is difficult to create and harder to maintain if there are false alarms.

So, for the sake of the communities in Karen's path, I hope the massive mobilization of assets is not needed, I also hope that the public who evacuate and others who take prudent steps to protect life and property are forgiving if the impacts of Karen aren't as severe as originally forecast.

Good luck Gulf Coast, we're all watching and waiting along with you.