Puerto Rico Earthquake Swarm

On January 13th news outlets reported a 6.4 quake along the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and just as the world recently became acquainted with the 'polar vortex' (previously known as a cold front), armchair seismologists were introduced to the Puerto Rico Trench. Lying just north of Puerto Rico, stretching roughly 800 miles, this topographical ditch in the Atlantic has been around for a long time, but a local awareness of plate tectonics and the forces at work that can produce earthquakes and subsequent tsunami's have not. Just as the unfamiliar term "storm surge" confused many in the Philippines and resulted in many staying in harms way as Super Typhoon Yolanda made landfall, a lack of familiarity with Earthquakes and Tsunami's in Puerto Rico mean that there is a lower level of awareness around quake preparedness. Then factor in that the last major earthquake to hit the island was in 1918 and you've got a recipe for an unmotivated public with no frame of reference when it comes to earthquakes.

And if you think that a one-off 6.5 quake isn't going to change attitudes, you're probably right, but what about the other 400+ quakes the region has experienced in the last week? While seismologists are quick to tell you that hundreds of earthquakes happen around the world everyday, the clustering and frequency of the earthquake activity around Puerto Rico has to make you wonder if something else is going on.

Compare the above to the earthquake activity in the last week in southern CA:

Does all of this seismic activity in Puerto Rico point to a larger earthquake event on the horizon? In most circumstances one would look to history for some context, but earthquake swarms, like the ones near Puerto Rico are not that well understood and answers to what is currently happening are not readily available by looking to the past. When a swarm generates a lot of small tremors, they usually fizzle out, but scientists don't understand why, so the answer to whether or not the Puerto Rico Trench is just getting warmed up remains to be seen.

While the causes and ultimate outcomes of the increased seismic activity remain a mystery, these quakes offer an opportunity to talk about the natural hazards Puerto Rico faces...especially earthquakes and tsunami's. One of the challenges in preparedness is to make people believe that the event in question can and will happen to them. For those in Puerto Rico, I hope that the attention the quakes are receiving will push these uncomfortable "what if" conversations that are generally avoided to the forefront of daily conversations. It's only when disasters are talked about that questions are asked and answers are sought. And while the constant rumblings of the earth make for sleepless nights, it's a reminder that we need to stay vigilant and continually press for greater engagement of our community partners so that when something does happen, people are prepared and communities are ready to recover.

Tropical Storm Karen

Tropical Storm Karen is roughly 200 miles off the Gulf Coast and is forecast to make landfall in the next 24-48 hours. Governor's of Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi have already declared state's of emergency to facilitate the movement of personnel and physical assets, and have strongly encouraged that families along the gulf coast be prepared.

Anticipated Rainfall                                                                                     Anticipated Path

The Mayor of Grand Isle, LA has issued a mandatory evacuation order and evacuation orders have been issued for Lafourche Parish, much of Plaquemines Parish, and parts of southeast New Orleans, were told to be out of their homes before nightfall.

Here is a clip of Thursday's White House daily briefing where Spokesman Jay Carney said that FEMA is recalling personnel in preparation for the storm so that a response can be launched should the situation call for it.

The current forecast has Karen spinning with sustained winds of 45-50mph and dropping between 4-6" of rain. Localized flooding fueled by a 3-5' storm surge is anticipated in low-lying areas but this is nothing that the Gulf Coast and its residents haven't dealt with before.

As someone who advocates for a greater emphasis be put on preparedness, I'm happy to see that State's and municipalities are taking the threat of this storm seriously; however, given Karen's waning strength, the recall of FEMA personnel, and the mandatory evacuations, the general attention surrounding the storm seems incongruous with its forecasted impacts.

I imagine that one of the hardest things to balance in the position of an emergency manager or other position with decision-making authority, is knowing when to hit the panic button with enough time so that people can evacuate vs. when to lay back and play it conservatively. There are costs associated with declaring state's of emergency, for activating auxiliary personnel and pre-staging assets, and when budgets are already tight, incurring un-budgeted incremental costs can be tough to swallow. Then you have to factor in the gamble you're taking with the trust of the public, and as we've seen in the Mid-Atlantic region with Irene and Sandy, trust is difficult to create and harder to maintain if there are false alarms.

So, for the sake of the communities in Karen's path, I hope the massive mobilization of assets is not needed, I also hope that the public who evacuate and others who take prudent steps to protect life and property are forgiving if the impacts of Karen aren't as severe as originally forecast.

Good luck Gulf Coast, we're all watching and waiting along with you.

Mobile Apps in Disaster

Have you ever built an Avatar? That may exclude too many of you, so how about something more relatable--have you ever built a survey using SurveyMonkey? You know, where you're given a predetermined set of options to create a survey that you can customize to your hearts content?

Now, apply that 'drag and drop' idea to app creation for Droid phones. Have you done that? Good. Now read this article because the folks at MIT have done just that and they're excited about how it could impact early recovery in disaster response.

The operating table inside the app inventor

Remember when I posted about Disaster Response in the Digital Age? I talked about the potential issues the mass proliferation of web applications and digital data platforms could have on disaster response. Well I would like to lump this quantum leap forward in app creation in with that post. It's not because I'm a luddite, far from it--I'm hip, I tweet, I'm a redditor, a member of the of blogosphere, so why then am I so against the DIY app-building that this MIT tool enables?

First off, I shouldn't say that I'm "against," it, because I believe there's value in tools of this nature and that the smartphone will play a key role in the future of early recovery in disaster response. I guess I would rather issue, or re-issue a strong word of caution, because I foresee this tool creating quite a stir.

You know the old adage: too many cooks in the kitchen? Well what happens when, in our quest for the next version, the next update, the next _____, we create tools that lets everyone become a cook? What you get is a lot of food, but how good is the food, and more importantly, how many terrible dishes will you have to get through before you find one that's delicious?

When you create open source tools the goal is to get that tool into as many hands as possible, the concern, in this case is that you run the risk of too many people making crap and using it. Proponents say that this access spurs innovation and that only those who have a desire to create something will. While this may be true, I urge you to look at the number of tumblr's, blogs, and other inane things (this blog) that exist simply because the tools to create them were readily available and tell me if on the whole we're spurring innovation.

If google maps hadn't created an open source aspect to their mapping tool, we wouldn't have the collaborative work order system that is being used to aid in the coordination of nonprofit organizations active in early recovery -- so I understand and appreciate the upside. However, how many Facebook pages pop up after disasters? How many local groups spring into action without having a clear idea of what they're doing? When tools are created without addressing how they're meant to fit within the existing landscape of disaster response, they're not working towards addressing the challenges of creating more resilient communities, if anything, they're working to undermine the plans, procedures, and protocols that have been put in place by emergency management professionals.

I'm not advocating that we discount or attempt to limit the power of motivated individuals and groups who play a much needed role in early recovery activities, quite the opposite. I'm one of the biggest advocates for increasing their involvement, I just want to make sure that when greater access to the building blocks that empower people to play a greater role within early recovery is enabled, that we do so with an eye towards the bigger picture. Technology without context will not contribute to situational awareness, it will merely give license to people to put themselves into potentially dangerous situations trying to capture images and video to add to this mobile app data tapestry.

Creating tools that empower is a step in the right direction; however, I would suggest that when this tool is launched, an educational module be incorporated that prepares individuals and groups for what happens after the emergency phase ends. By providing that context and the role that individuals can play by creating and using their apps, we're creating a shared understanding and a common goal, two key elements in creating community resilience and empowering individuals to take role in their communities recovery.

Preparedness is about more than having a kit

Having the physical resources to get through a disaster are important: food, water, flashlights, a radio, medicine, a means to charge your phone, etc...these are some of the components that make up the foundation of self-sufficiency that everyone should have in preparation for an event. Many of you probably know much of this because physical preparedness is drilled into our heads, because it's tangible; you can create simple messaging around it and it’s easy to quantify impact and evaluate results. The tougher side, the side that is often overlooked and far more difficult to quantify, is creating social value in learning and passing on the knowledge of relevant information pertinent to response outside of: Make a Plan, Build a Kit, Get Involved.

Make a Plan | Build a Kit | Get Involved

This is the message that gets pushed at all levels of government, simple and straightforward, yet translating awareness into action remains a challenge. In the Booz Allen Hamilton paper: Mitigating Our Nation's Risks: Calling upon the Whole Community an examination of the psychology of behavior and what needs to happen in order to turn awareness into action is discussed. As it turns out, we all think a disaster is going to happen to anyone but us, and as a result, we can be lax in our approach to preparing for an event. This delusion is what ends up hampering response and recovery efforts down the line because many don’t know what to do and more importantly, what to expect.

Teach Someone To Build a Kit and They’ll Know How to Build a Kit

Disaster Preparedness is not just about having a kit and a meeting point, although those are integral aspects to personal preparedness; it’s about education and the setting and managing of expectations in an effort to help mitigate some of the confusion of an overwhelming situation. While there are a host of resources out there that reference preparedness, here are few topics that I think individuals would benefit from if included in preparedness materials:

Topic	Info
Insurance: Knowing what you’re covered for and an idea of how the process works will save you time and frustration.	·     How to read your policy ·     What’re you covered for? ·     How do you file a claim? ·     Does an Adjuster have to        conduct a site visit before I        begin cleaning up? ·     In lieu of a site visit will          photos or a video suffice?
Roles & Responsibilities: Knowing who is supposed to do what will work to mitigate a lot of misdirected anger.	·     What is FEMA’s role in                 response? ·     What does the Red Cross         actually do? ·     An explanation of the FEMA        grant process
Timelines: Having a general idea on timing can help mitigate confusion and anger.	·     Search & Rescue ·     Response ·     Recovery
Long Term Recovery: What happens once everything is cleaned up?	·     Transition from cleanup to        Long Term Recovery ·     Long Term Recovery        Committee formation ·     Permitting process for        repairing and rebuilding

The point of the above is that there are more pieces of information out there that will help create a base level of understanding beyond existing messaging related to disaster preparedness.

So what do we do about it?

We need to approach this like any for profit enterprise would in an effort to try and change mindsets - use Marketing, PR, and Advertising and the many tools it has at its disposal. This is already happening and what's being produced is pretty cool...but in too much of an ad hoc manner. With operational budgets dwindling, finding room for advertising sounds ridiculous, and is. But there are people out there whose sole mission is to change the way we think about soap, toothbrushes, and dish detergent...why can't we hire those minds to help us think through how we can change mindsets around preparedness and do it in a way that will change behavior?

Let's Get Digital
Sites like Khan Academy and Ted Ed are examples of online education 2.0, they are places that people seek out to gain access to new ideas and perspectives...when was the last time you went to Ready.gov to do that or FEMA's Independent Study Website? The opportunity is there to create an online space that can act as a resource clearinghouse while providing access to tutorials, updates, and relevant content promoting preparedness.

or...

Let's Go Old Skool

I vividly remember Officer Grazonty standing in my Elementary School auditorium telling us about ‘Stranger Danger’ and how to be safe on Halloween 20+ years ago. I also remember D.A.R.E from high school, Drug Abuse Resistance Education. Of course we all made fun of it…but we remember it. And finally I remember P.A.S.S. from a safety lecture in reference to how to use a fire extinguisher. Maybe I'm Rainman and have a gift for remembering safety related information...or maybe I was in school and the confluence of age, environment, message, and speaker all worked to indelibly imprint these safety tips in my psyche. Based on that, I believe there are opportunities for integrating disaster preparedness into existing school curriculum: Earth Science, Health, Social Studies, etc...ways to illustrate a disasters' impact and what they can do and encourage their parents to do to help mitigate them.

If we are going to get serious about integrating disaster preparedness into a ‘whole of community’ paradigm, it can’t just be for senior level officers in Non-Profits and Emergency Management. Of course we want those people well versed in all things disaster, but the support of a community who has been involved in the planning will be a far greater asset than those who feel like they've been kept in the dark during response and recovery.

Moving from managing Disasters, to managing Risks

The United Nation's Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has issued their 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, a comprehensive report on...you guessed it, reducing disaster risk. Disaster Risk Reduction is essentially the International equivalent to community preparedness and resilience--working to integrate best practices and workable solutions into communities at risk.

If you've read more than a post or two you've seen the words "preparedness," "resilience," and 'community-based response" dot this blog and for good reason, these words are driving influences behind where and how Emergency Management dollars are allocated. However, transforming these words from rhetoric into action remains a challenge for local, state, and national agencies alike; and as we enter the eighth month of 2013, usually the most active month of hurricane season, 53 events have already been designated disasters by FEMA up from the yearly average of 19 during the 60's.

To be fair, the hard push towards whole of community disaster risk reduction is fairly new and will take time to yield tangible results; this newness coupled with the fact that it’s been non-stop disasters of some kind for as long as I can remember, and an argument for why more communities aren’t better prepared can be made. Then you read an article from Mother Jones where Superstorm Sandy is used as an example of how some of the damage from Sandy could have been avoided, and you begin to question whether that argument is valid. The article cites studies from early 01 and 09 that forecast exactly what happened in late Oct / early Nov of last year...in some cases studies that were commissioned by the city of New York but no action was taken as a result of the findings. 

We continue to hit on the points of: preparedness, resilience, and whole of community in an effort to help bolster preparedness and risk reduction at the local level, yet there seems to be a lack of any kind of political will to enact change. Who wants to spend money on levee re-construction when there hasn’t been a flood? Why shouldn’t we broaden our tax base and rezone riverfront land to build rental properties? Of course the Emergency Manager Position should be the fire or police chief, they have the expertise and the city doesn’t have to pay for another position. With cities going bankrupt, drastic times are calling for drastic measures, even if that means taking risks with lives and property.

It’s easy to say that it’s because programs lack proper funding that the recommendations of the studies conducted are not heeded, when in truth it ends up costing communities more in the long run to ignore them. There needs to be the will of those in power to make unpopular decisions and to do so in the name of preparing and protecting their community. As of July 3rd, Moore, Ok city's council had delayed their vote that would upgrade building codes to mandate that homes have construction techniques that make them more resistant to Tornadic winds, and earlier today, that same city council voted to approve the $32 Million dollar cleanup price tag that will be reimbursed by FEMA.

Maybe the federal government needs to re-evaluate the benchmarks used in determining what constitutes a federal declaration, maybe if communities knew that they’d be on their own unless it was a major event, stronger building codes would already be in place, and the time, energy, and attention needed would be paid to preparedness activities. If those draconian measures aren't politically palatable, then stipulating that in order to receive FEMA assistance, mitigation initiatives need to be a part of their recovery and rebuilding planning. This would send a message that the status quo is no longer acceptable when it comes to repair and rebuild following disasters and that by managing risks we can reduce their impacts.

Consensus on Clean up

One of the greatest assets individuals and communities can have before, during, and after a disaster is the knowledge of what happens next, and the confidence to act on that knowledge. Unfortunately, the current state of preparedness in many communities is far from that ideal and as a result, leaves room for ambiguity around key issues that mark turning points in an individual and community's recovery.

A great opportunity to clear up some of this ambiguity while working to set and manage homeowner expectations is to, as a response community, agree and adhere to standards around the work done on behalf of impacted homeowners i.e. mucking/gutting/debris removal/sanitizing/mold treatment/etc. By gaining consensus on this issue, standards can be proactively communicated as a part of preparedness initiatives to help bring both homeowner and responding groups (established or spontaneous) onto the same page when engaging in cleanup activities. Not only that, but by actively pushing cleanup standards, homeowners don't have to wait around for someone to help them, they can quickly and aggressively begin the process with friends, family, or spontaneous volunteers from the community and work to a standard that is applied across the country...in essence, working to create more resilient communities.

Is it done?

Is it Done?
I would bet that if you were to show the above photo to different people with different levels of experience in response, homeowners included, and asked what needed to happen next, you would get a variety of answers. Not to say that they would be wrong, but finding a definitive answer would not be an easy task because until recently no checklist existed, there was no "how to" guide endorsed by a coalition of organizations or FEMA to help define the process. Given that more than a handful of organizations have been doing this type of work for years spanning hundreds of disasters, one would think that an authoritative guidebook would've been written before now, if for no other reason than to give homeowners a chance at a full recovery without such reliance on response organizations. I say this because responding non-profits can't serve everyone, and after a certain point, they begin to pack up taking with them their know how and experience, leaving the remaining work to fewer and oftentimes less experienced resources. What remains is often a mash up of homes taken to various stages of "completeness," and a lot of grey area around how best to move many of them forward.

In recognition that the resources and surge of Volunteer power are not inexhaustible, the National VOAD Housing Committee has created guidelines to formalize an understanding of what completing the steps involved in clean up means. This was done to bring some uniformity to how we talk and act in the field on behalf of impacted homeowners and renters.

Go here for the download

While the creation of the above guidance documentation is a good start, I believe packaging these guidelines with documentation and other relevant resources should be used as a part of community preparedness programming; preparedness is about more than having food and water, it's about having the knowledge and understanding of what happens next. 

The goal is to ensure that all homeowners and responding groups have a clear understanding of expectations around what the different phases of cleanup are to mitigate the guesswork so that consistency can be created in the work done on behalf of impacted homeowners.

In the post, 'Disaster Response in the Digital Age' I talk about the need for the creation of a standardized data set so that information can flow freely between the proprietary software platforms being utilized during response. I believe the creation of this guidance document is an important first step, because without consensus around the definitions of cleanup activities, getting consistency in data collection and tracking, the first step in data set standardization, isn't feasible.

Disaster Response in the Digital Age

Have you ever seen a competition cooking show where each chef had to prepare a meal based on the same ingredients? The results are always diverse, utilizing different ingredients in ways unique to each Chef's background and training. While there isn't a TV showcasing the development taking place, we are experiencing something similar in disaster response, a renaissance if you will of application creation aimed at increasing efficiencies of response organizations active in disaster response and recovery.

This list represents a small fraction of the applications/companies with applications that have been created in response to the growing number of disasters and their impacts on communities. This list does not include the wealth of googledoc spreadsheets, excel files, or access databases that are created ad hoc to deal with the onslaught of information needing attention following an event.

Crisis Cleanup
GRT Mobile Solutions
Project SGE 2.0
Palantir
Jointly.us
CERTify (an app for CERT Team coordination)
ArcGIS
WebEOC
Help Me Help
GeoOp (used by the SVA after the Christchurch Earthquakes)
HelpBridge
Crisis mappers
Ushahidi
Google Crisis Maps
Needmapper
Ready QLD (Queensland, Australia's app)
Recovers.org

While the creation of tools to help communities work with the myriad of groups that aid in response and recovery is great, and certainly welcomed, there is a growing concern that we're progressing too fast and not approaching this in a thoughtful or strategic manner. Just because you can go to an all you can eat buffet doesn't mean that you have to eat until you vomit right? Well the same idea applies--just because we can create an unlimited number of apps that marry GIS,workflow, and damage assessment data, doesn't mean we should...without first putting some parameters around what it is we're trying to accomplish and how these tools can help advance an overall plan. As it stands it feels like each response organization is using and in some cases pushing a unique application which can lead to competition for the one app to rule them all.

We're Not Speaking the Same Language
A consistent issue brought up after events is the lack of access to real-time information, data that can be used to help inform the decision making process during response and recovery. Due to privacy issues, organizations on the ground are reluctant to share information with one another or anyone else for that matter until after they've left. This is a problem, but it doesn't encompass the whole problem. Even if groups were better about sharing information, it couldn't be done easily because the applications that are currently being used don't "speak the same language." There are multiple apps doing the same thing but because of the way they've been built, they can't share info, and given that collaboration and cooperation are the cornerstones of successful response--this inability to share is becoming a problem. Everyone is pushing for faster and more efficient, which is great, but rare is the instance where all responding groups are using the same technological platform to work from so those gains in efficiency are marred when trying to work together.

It's understood that timely information is key to promoting a coordinated response effort, what isn't understood is what information we're talking about. I believe that the wealth of apps created to help communities is great, I just want to ensure that all of the apps created can "talk" to one another so that information can be shared in real time...that way, an established response organization and spontaneous groups are working with the same data sets. Experience tells me that no platform is going to be used 100% of the time by 100% of the groups active in response, if we know that then we should be working to provide a framework so that whatever applications are being used can easily interface with everything else out there to aid in response activities.

Disaster Data-Standard
In essence what I'm talking about is the creation of a disaster data standard. Core data sets that can be the foundational elements of any application mobile or otherwise, think of it like a disaster API. If the foundation upon which all the apps are built is the same, then communication and the sharing of info should no longer be an issue. It turns out that I'm not the only on who's been thinking this way, Nethope, a tech focused nonprofit has spearheaded something called the Open Humanitarian Initiative, a broad-ranging effort with the goal of creating a unified data set that will aid in the delivery of disaster response in the information age. This presentation gives you a more detailed view of what their aim is:

Open Humanitarian Initiative - 2013 Plan from Gisli Olafsson

Technology is a tool, not a solution
In the midst of the conversation on the mass proliferation of technology and how it can impact disaster response, it's important to remember that technology is only as powerful as those who wield it, and that during times of crisis people tend to go with what's easiest and most comfortable. While the agencies responding may be well versed in the latest and greatest, if all disasters begin and end at the local level, it's important that those who will be there long after the National groups have left are comfortable with whatever system has been left for them, if they're not, a new system will be cobbled together and people will start over.

Access to reliably accurate and timely information is essential to gaining situational awareness following a disaster. When every responding organization holds a different piece of the puzzle to gaining situational awareness, efforts are hampered and gaining unity of effort becomes exceedingly difficult. But don't take my word for it, the former Minister of Science and Technology of South Africa said it much better in 2005 at the Southern African Telecommunications Networks and Applications Conference :

“The tsunami that devastated South Eastern Asian countries and the north-eastern parts of Africa, is perhaps the most graphic, albeit unfortunate, demonstration of the need for global collaboration, and open ICT* standards. The incalculable loss of life and damage to property was exacerbated by the fact that responding agencies and non-governmental groups were unable to share information vital to the rescue effort. Each was using different data and document formats. Relief was slowed, and coordination complicated.” 

*Information and Communications Technology