Could this be the worst hurricane season on record?

You feel that? It's getting a little chilly outside, especially if you're in the northeast. The leaves are just beginning to change and it's officially fall. As people put their thoughts of a possible Indian summer to bed and takeout their jackets and boots, they also generally think that they've dodged a bullet when it comes to Hurricane season.

Now you might be laughing to yourself saying that I'm a moron! Don't you remember Hurricane Sandy? How can you say that people have put those thoughts to bed when the Anniversary is right around the corner--at the END of October? And that Hurricane season doesn't end until the END of November? And you'd be right, all of those things are true save for the moron part; we still have a lot of Hurricane season to anxiously wait through and there's a lot of media reminding us of that fact:

• http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/14/us/hurricane-season-prediction-mystery/index.html
• http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/does-august-lull-atlantic-hurricane-activity-mean-we-wont-be-having
• http://www.eqecat.com/blog/hurricanes/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-august-2013/
• http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurricane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/
• http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/09/07/quiet-hurricane-season/2776845/

When you read through these articles asking what's going on, you can almost sense that they're pissed, an almost "What Gives?" attitude; you promised us an above average hurricane season...remember?" 

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

Yet here we sit...waiting, wondering, silently cursing the powers that forecast our fate...and we do this because we can't do anything else. 

So, how can I say that this may be the worst hurricane season on record if nothing has happened yet? Well, it was a tad dramatic to say "the worst" but it's pretty bad. Remember the heeded warnings that preceded Hurricane Irene? Shutdown subways, runs on food, and people getting out of town? It was a major inconvenience, but people did it. When Irene fell short of producing forecasted impacts, people felt lied to and the city took a hit financially from cancelled events and shuttered infrastructure. From a preparedness perspective it was a huge win though, the city was prepared for a potential storm and pulled through relatively unscathed. What happened though was that it eroded the confidence in the forecasting models and in the decision-makers who urged people get ready...because nothing happened.

Fast forward to Sandy coming up the eastern seaboard a year later and a similar situation unfolded. Warnings were communicated, subways were shuttered, and on the barrier islands evacuation notices were issued. However, because people felt burned by the false alarm that was Irene, those warnings fell on deaf ears--a, 'fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me' mentality.

So in saying that this is potentially the "worst" hurricane season on record is due to the potentially damaging ramifications from a psychological perspective. People have short memories when it comes to disasters, a sort of disaster amnesia. Right now hurricane season has the attention of many more people than it would otherwise, with the proverbial preparedness pump primed for people to exercise plans made in preparation of, or in response to Sandy. If nothing happens this season, that would be fantastic, but I believe that the amnesia will begin to set in and the focus on individual, family, and small business preparedness will fade into the ether--which is not so fantastic.

Getting people to take notice of preparedness activities and integrate them into their lives is one of the greatest challenges we face as practitioners. It's unfortunate that it takes an event where loss of life and property occur for people to take notice and more importantly, take action. It's an even more unfortunate that the action it fuels is so short-lived. Without a constant reminder of why being prepared is so important, people forget, because it's easier and less overwhelming to let it slip away than to remain vigilant.

For those who are still in the process of recovery in the mid-Atlantic region, Sandy is not a distant memory but an everyday reality. The luxury of letting what happened slip away is not a possibility, so while the limited physical impacts of a quiet hurricane season are wonderful, the psychological toll it takes on how people view preparedness can make the quiet years some of the most damaging.  

This is not a Test...

Tech, people, ideas, disasters...when you clear away all the buzz words, jargon, and platitudes, it's time to see what is actually being done to utilize available tech for the betterment of society. The Social Good Summit brought a lot of ideas to light, and highlighted some of the good work being done by leveraging technology; however, outside of the fight against Malaria, concrete examples of tech in action were few and far between. So when I opened the paper upon my return to Southern California I was surprised to read that Governor Jerry Brown recently signed a bill appropriating roughly $80 million towards the implementation of an earthquake early warning system.

Photo taken from seismicwarning.com

 The installation of this early warning detection system will be a series of sensor arrays that will build upon the existing infrastructure setup by CISN or the California Integrated Seismic Network in Southern CA. Given the looming threat earthquakes pose to the communities in Southern California it's surprising that it's taken this long to put something like this into action. Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, Romania, and China are all countries that have an early warning system in place to detect seismic activity, and while there are no immediate plans to expand this system, it's something the entire West Coast would no doubt benefit from.

Simple explanation

Upon first reading articles stating that $80 Million would be allocated to this project I didn't really see the upside given that Earthquakes define the sudden onset disaster paradigm. So how much of a notice would an "early" warning system give? It turns out that it has the potential to give enough time (in some scenarios close to 60 seconds) to do a lot of good: stop trains, warn people, and help to get them into the right frame of mind to deal with and persevere through a major earthquake event. With the ability to connect with smart phones, highway signage, and through traditional means on TV and radio, the potential of connecting with a large segment of the population is quite high.

In Japan, prior to the the March 2011 9.0 that struck off their coast, mass texts were sent and warnings were automatically broadcast on television and radio, according to some sources, 80 precious seconds of warning were given. That warning coupled with the consistent building standards helped to ameliorate what could've been a significant loss of life and property.

And while this system will no doubt have a positive impact and help save the lives of many when the big one does hit, one has to wonder how vulnerable a system like that is? What happens when something like that misfires? While certainly a false alarm is better than having it preempt a massive earthquake, I'm thinking more along the lines of the probable mental impacts that would be linked to a false alarm.

And while there are potential risks with any new technology, the early warning system has the potential to give people the opportunity to put themselves into a better situation with the time they're given...the only thing left is ensuring that a well-informed public knows what to do with the time they're given.

Social Goodness

After a day of travel, recovery, and catching up on work, I bring to you the final installment on my experience at the Social Good Summit; three days that have left me both exhausted and invigorated.

After working in the disaster space for a while, the community can feel small, which made attending this event a welcome opportunity to gain perspective and meet some new faces along the way. And while I may have some beef with certain aspects of the summit, it doesn’t change the fact that listening to people who are passionate and actively engaged in what they’re doing is something that I really enjoy.

So…what was it all about?

Some of the messages that were hammered home were: getting engaged, creating social movements, and empowering millennials. I realize that based on those cliched takeaways that I could've attended a conference on any number of topics, but that's what was scribbled over and over in my notes. And while they may be overused, it doesn't make them any less valid or important. Many of the speakers/panelists from Mashable to [Insert successful nonprofit here] have gained prominence and generated impact because they've been able to strike the right balance of the above factors.

With that said, there were two speakers who didn't represent organizations or foundations, they came as emissaries of two important ideas related to some of the consequences in the increase in ubiquity of social media.

1. Doug Rushkoff. Author, Communications Theorist, and all around smart guy gave a very insightful and brief talk on an interesting question: "What happens, When Everything Happens Now?" Below is his talk from a previous speaking engagement but is basically the same and here is his website: http://www.rushkoff.com/

2. Matt Wallaert. Behavioral Scientist, Entrepreneur, and also a smart guy who talked about: "Competing Pressures: The Struggle for the Future of Attention." As the tools to create movements around ideas and causes become more readily available, the number of messages competing for our attention and our dollars will increase. Matt talked about ways around our limited spans of attention, but his talk reminds me that the proliferation of organizations and causes may have a negative impact on social giving and the social impact space as a whole.

Was there enough talk of Disasters? Definitely not, but through my conversations and learning about my new champion President Yudhoyono, I’ve also stumbled onto something called the “Hyogo Framework for Action: 2005-2015. Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities in Disasters.” Something I will happily read and no doubt comment on. I also learned about some new nonprofits working to end Malaria and those who are trying to raise awareness around social issues that are impacting every country on the planet.

So while the Summit didn’t fit my pre-conceived notions of what I thought it should be, it left me with a lot of ideas, a lot of reading, and hopefully a little smarter and more aware of the challenges facing the world around us, and better equipped to tell that story through this blog.

Disasters as a footnote in the conversation on Climate Change

Climate Reality Project

Yesterday I wrote about how the Social Good Summit's theme of #2030NOW is an opportunity to inform the direction of the Post-2015 Agenda, or life after the Millennium Development Goals. With that understanding, I eagerly awaited today to hear about how the concept of climate change and disasters would be woven into some of the panels and presentations, and more importantly, how it would be cemented in the bedrock of the charter from which the global development community would derive its strategic direction for the next 15 years.

Al Gore kicked off the climate change portion of the day with an impassioned call to arms around climate action and introduced presentations like: We're already paying the cost of Carbon, Today's Solutions Tomorrow's Future, and Millennials Leading the Way. While very interesting, I was ultimately disappointed that disasters were only talked about as an outcome of unchecked carbon emissions rather than a topic within the broader conversation with it's own panel/presentation. 

I know that I shouldn't be surprised by this given that it was Al Gore leading the afternoon, but I feel that it was short-sighted. For the purposes of today's discussion at the Social Good Summit, Climate Change and the solutions proposed were economically based. Provide incentives to business to reduce carbon emissions by levying taxes or a financial tariff and bam! bottom-line thinking that gets at the root of the problem in a language business can understand. Talking in those terms however does not address the secondary and tertiary issues that arise from the fact that disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity, and ultimately affecting millions of people across the world annually. 

There was no talk of creating more resilient communities better prepared to deal with the cycle of drought, flooding, and famine in Africa, nor how vulnerable populations are addressing the challenges of flooding in cities like Manila. And there was certainly no talk of innovative technological solutions addressing the lack of coordination within OCHA's cluster system, nor how emergent groups are giving early recovery a facelift thanks to innovative social technologies. When looking at disasters through the lens of carbon emission, you're not talking about how to address the ongoing impacts of this augmented climate reality all of us are living in. Of course addressing the root of the problem is critical, but the conversation can and should be about so much more.

There was a bright spot however, Maggie Fox, CEO of the Climate Reality Project talked about climate change in the context of current events, i.e. the flooding in Colorado. She contextualized the issue by talking about how the impacts of this new climate reality are already unfolding in communities across the world and left the door open to continue to broaden the conversation as we move towards 2015. 

I realize that this summit is about expanding how we approach the unfinished business of the MDGs with new tech and fresh ideas, but I also thought it was about expanding upon what was built 13 years ago to encompass the new reality we face, the progress made, and the challenges we've encountered.

Indonesian President Yudhoyono...aka: STUD

Feeling down because no one wanted to talk about disasters, I turned to my friend the internet and looked for hope and found it in Indonesia's President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Hailed as the global champion for Disaster Risk Reduction, President Yudhoyono has mounted a crusade to ensure that the gains made in addressing the MDGs are not put in jeopardy due to the increasing risks natural disasters pose. The fact that there is an advocate championing this cause at some of the highest levels within the international development community, and one that represents a country with a deep appreciation for the impacts disasters can have on all aspects of community, gives me hope that the Post-2015 Agenda will have a broader approach to such an important issue.

Social Good Summit: Day 1

Day 1 of the Social Good Summit and I'm in recovery. Today was a mind melting, rapid-fire, Ted-styled idea jam™. Six hours of captivating stories, innovative ideas, and compelling calls to action, from how technology is playing a central role in combating malaria, to the quest for conflict free technology and the dark-side of society's techno-fetish. The discussions and conversations had today were and continue to be a lot to process. 

The theme of this years Social Good Summit is #2030NOW, building on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) created in 2000 to help to guide the discussion for what the post-2015 conversation will look like...with 2030 being the metaphorical finish line.

Giving yourself 15 years to tackle significant systemic issues impacting the global human condition--to say that's ambitious would be an understatement. So with 2015 fast approaching, the UN issued a progress report in July giving a state of the union on where things stand related to the MDGs:

http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/MDG/english/mdg-report-2013-english.pdf

So what does any of this have to do with the Social Good Summit? Even with the report citing some amazing progress being made, due to a myriad of factors, the MDGs won't be realized by the original deadline. So instead of dropping it, a Post-2015 Agenda is being created, and because things have changed since the MDGs were created, like new instruments to measure impact and new approaches conceived at conferences like Rio+20, a shift in the approach to the post-2015 agenda is needed.

Enter the Social Good Summit.

While the purpose of the Summit isn't to write the book on how to approach life after 2015, it is talking about how to continue chipping away at the MDGs and to do so with greater efficiency. Since 2000 there has been explosive growth in the development and application of technology, mobile or otherwise, in addressing many of the societal issues outlined by the MDGs. By bringing together leaders in industry, the humanitarian sector, education, nonprofits, and the social media sphere to talk about what's working and what isn't, the resulting nuggets of wisdom gained through trial and error can hopefully be incorporated into how 2015 and beyond is approached.

Bring on Day 2.

Not enough hours

Hi everyone,

I'm sorry to say that chances are slim that I'll be posting today. I've been in New York, New Jersey, and Rhode Island talking with nonprofits active in long term recovery post-Sandy while watching and supporting nonprofits actively engaged in the response efforts in Colorado. While my time with these community-based organizations in the Mid-Atlantic region has been fruitful, it has left little opportunity to sit and write.

Between this and the Social Good Summit (which I'm still looking for your input on), my posting may be a tad sporadic over the next couple of days.

Thanks for your patience...for shorter and less in depth updates to hold you over check out the facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/everythingsadisaster

FEMA's Think Tank

The least innovative logo design

After highlighting the Social Good Summit (which I'm still soliciting input for), I began to look at what else is being done to solicit input and ideas from a broader audience to address the problems we face as a community of practice. Given the 'whole of community' push, events like the Social Good Summit miss the opportunity to hear from stakeholder's themselves, people who aren't in senior-level positions but still have something to say. So is there a forum for everyday people to have their voice heard? How is the whole of community being included in the process of ideation and innovation outside of response activities?

The answer, or part of the answer is the FEMA Think Tank. Some critics of the Federal Government may say that the title of the entity is an oxymoron, but the fact remains that a forum exists where anyone who believes they can contribute to the National conversation on community preparedness, response, recovery, mitigation, etc...has the opportunity to submit an idea.

The Think Tank has two main components, an online forum and a discussion session conducted by FEMA's Deputy Administrator Rich Serino.

Online Forum
This aspect of the Think Tank allows individuals to submit ideas, the community then reads and votes on each idea, the concept being, the higher the score, the more people agree. An aspect of this forum that I appreciate is the fact that you need to create a profile before submitting and/or voting. While the system can still be influenced, the gating factor seems to provide enough of a deterrent so that things aren't skewed too much in one direction or the other.

Discussion Sessions
This part of the Think Tank is equally as interesting. Based on the ideas generated from the online forum, conference calls are held by Deputy Administrator Rich Serino in an effort to engage a broader audience within emergency management and disaster response to discuss the ideas brought to light via the forum.

Critics have called this more of a dog and pony show than actually seeking out and stress testing new ideas, but the fact remains that it exists and is being used. The motivations for its creation can be questioned, but if people are gaining access to a senior level FEMA official to talk about ideas they have to better what we do, then I would say that its accomplishing something fairly unique.

FEMA is working not only with the public at large, it's also working to leverage the expertise of the private sector to help create solutions to persistent challenges in the disaster space. FEMA recently held a "Data Jam / Think Tank," and while the name sounds like something my Mom might have come up with, it attracted some savvy tech companies: Air BnB, twillo, google, Huffington Post's Social Impact to name a few, to focus on Innovating to improve Disaster Recovery.

Technology is empowering individuals, those who have gone through an event and those who haven't. It's giving everyone a chance to have a voice, and while having a voice is important, it's what you choose to say that ends up making a difference. And with outlets like the Think Tank and access to tools that previously didn't exist, what people choose to say is being magnified and making a difference.