Surviving a blackout

When the lights went out in NYC for a few hours there were inconveniences for people and losses for business. However, it was only for a few hours and people chalked it up to a once in a lifetime experience.

While many hope that's the case, the aging power grid and books like 'One Second After' point to the potential for a more protracted "lights out" scenario. 

American Blackout is a special that National Geographic will be airing on Oct 27th that explores what a protracted blackout scenario would look like. While I don't know if I'll tune in, I did checkout the interactive website. It breaks down what a 10-day blackout scenario would look like for an individual and I think the format is something that would be interesting to see applied to the broader world of preparedness. It's engaging, interactive, and kept me clicking. 

If you want to kill some time, check it out. 

Do you know of something similar? Leave a comment below, I would like to see what else is out there. 

Survive The Blackout

http://www.survivetheblackout.com/

Drought, Fire, and Climate Change?

Earlier this year I posted on an unprecedented firestorm that overtook Tasmanian towns in "Fire on the Mountain." What was astounding about that event was the fact that there was nothing anyone could do to "fight" that blaze; the wind, the soaring temperatures, and the aggressive nature of the fire were more than conventional firefighting tactics could handle, and as such, the only thing people could do was to get out of the way and let it burn.

Six days ago what started as fires in the brush and farm lands around the Blue Mountains of New South Wales (NSW), a national park area roughly 60 miles from the heart of downtown Sydney, has mutated into 60 fires with 18 of them uncontained thanks to high winds, high temps, and low humidity. In addition to the environmental factors fanning the flames, the topography of the mountainous area in question and the high density of volatile eucalyptus, or "gasoline trees," are adding to the challenges of keeping an ever expanding fire front under control.

NSW brushfire 10.21.2013             Source: Brisbanetimes

And while all signs point to the an unholy trinity of environmental factors: high heat, low humidity, and high wind for fanning the flames of the current situation, Andy Pitman from the University of New South Wales believes that climate change is the cause of this current emergency and not the coincidental alignment of environmental factors. Pitman asserts that the 2nd warmest winter on record in NSW, part of Australia's warmest 12 month period created the environment in which the fires are thriving and that there is probably a larger link to climate change. Regardless of the root cause, Rural Fire Services Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons just wants it to end.

Wednesday Morning (AEDT) Rural Fire Service Media Briefing:



So the big question is...if fires have been a way of life in Australia for decades, would it not make sense to create a map based on fire behavior and historical fire data to inform where and how homes are built in the future? Like all large disasters, the cleanup and restoration of areas are often partially subsidized with taxpayer dollars. While you can't predict where a fire will start, I believe there is enough data to inform the designation of high risk areas where it would be likely to spread and why. Based on this information couldn't mapping of "red zones" or off-limit areas be compiled to not only reduce the scope of these destructive events, but to also alleviate some of the taxpayer burden, and reduce the anxiety of living in fear of fire?

The Bohol quake is about more than churches

October 17th marked the day of the Shakeout, an opportunity for people to run through the motions of an earthquake scenario to see how they would react in the event of a quake.

Last Thursday's simulation was made a lot more real in light of the 7.2 quake that shook the Philippines two days prior. In the last week there have been over 1900 aftershocks keeping tensions high and people on alert. The story that emerged from the Philippines in the days immediately following the quake was the damage done to many of the historic churches that dot the archipelago of islands. However, the human and community toll is just beginning to come into focus.

To give you an idea, the power released during a magnitude 7 earthquake is equivalent to that of 32 Million Tons of TNT; the largest US test of a Thermonuclear device only yielded the power of a Magnitude 6.0 Quake:

Thermonuclear blast from 'Castle Bravo Test' equivalent to 6.0 Quake

And while the Philippines is no stranger to shaking, having a front row seat along the Ring of Fire, coming on the heels of typhoon after typhoon affecting the north island of Luzon (think Manila), the country was already dealing with more than one crisis that has stretched the capacity and resources of its response capabilities.

Given the increasing impact and broadening of scope the quake has had on public/private enterprises and infrastructure, the Philippines isn't turning away the offers of international aid. However, in order to effectively utilize those offers of help, an understanding of the full scope of the quake remains the top priority. According to the latest sitrep from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council:

• 186 are dead | 583 injured | 11 missing
• Out of more than 600,000 families affected, 80,000+ have been displaced
• Shelter populations: 96 Evacuation Shelters house 22,113 families
• 45,641 homes have been damaged (10,020 destroyed / 35,621 partially damaged)

The sitrep is extremely detailed and while these numbers remain in a quasi-fluid state, given that its been less than a week and some of the areas have been cut off until recently, having detailed situational awareness early on will help focus attention and resources on areas where the needs remain acute.

The Digital Rumor Mill

As was probably the case in India leading up to Phailin's landfall, the challenge of dealing with misinformation via social networks and SMS chains remains a challenge for those managing preparedness and recovery efforts. Philstar.com reported this message causing panic and confusion:

While subsequent messaging from government agencies was sent to refute this message as well as the rumors of a new Volcano forming in the region, unease among residents trying to begin on their road to recovery remains present.

In the face of the disaster rumor mill, ongoing aftershocks, remote areas continuing to need immediate assistance, and the capital city reeling from an intense Typhoon season, those who are responsible for dealing with the aftermath of last week's temblor have their work cut out for them.

After looking at what's happened and continues to happen to the people of the Philippines, waiting and wondering when the ground will settle down...I wonder if those who participated in the Shakeout drills considered how they would deal with a lack of information and what they could do to help prepare mentally for something so unexpected.

For those who have been impacted and those who are there to help, be safe.

Social Giving

I love it when it's Friday and I find an interesting infographic to share. I've shared infographics on the power of social media has during response activities, but as organizations involved in disaster it can be difficult to figure out if/whether/how these channels should be used to raise some cash.

While the below is interesting, it's sad to see that international aid is only 2% and that disaster response/recovery doesn't make the cut.

Do you and/or your organization utilize social media as a means to raise funds? How's it working or not working for you?

Thanks to the folks over at Blackbaud for putting this together.

World Disaster Report 2013

Since 1993 the 'World Disaster Report' has been an annual examination of trends in humanitarian aid covering topics ranging from: Public Health and Ethics in Aid, to Urban Risk and Hunger & Malnutrition. Produced by the International Federation of Red Crescent Societies in partnership with Harvard's Humanitarian Initiative, this report aims to track trends, highlight facts, and analyze contemporary events and their impacts on populations worldwide.

The subject of this year's report focuses on the impact technological innovation has had on humanitarian action. It examines the progress made in reducing lives lost through the innovation and integration of tech. It also devotes a chapter to understanding two important assumptions: "that adding technology is inevitable and that doing so will generate progress." While not having read the chapter yet, I appreciate that there is an examination of the risks involved given the rapid transformation of how we use technology, and how those risks could potentially impact how humanitarian aid is delivered. With many new innovations, we tend to gloss over the bad in favor of the good, so the honest approach to both sides of the 'tech in aid' issue is welcomed.

I hope that after reading through the document that one comes away with a sense of optimism that technology can and will continue to play an important role in reducing loss of life and property due to disasters, and to remember that technology should remain a means to an end and not an end in and of itself.

http://www.ifrc.org/PageFiles/134658/WDR%202013%20complete.pdf

Welcome to the future of preparedness

The sky turns black, the storm clouds roll in...the ominous blare of the warning sirens wail...no wait, those aren't sirens, that's emotionally uplifting classical music.

Cut to the truck driving up the river...awesome.

If you, your organization, or your state agency is looking to raise the profile a little bit, may I suggest one of whatever these vehicles are. Nothing says we're in control like a vehicle that makes the full-sized army hummer look like a compact. They're perfect for taking donors to impoverished areas, for using river beds as roads, and while you don't see it in the video below, they make a great a rental for when you want to make an entrance at the next big annual conference.

And talk about an easy sell to donors...nothing says fiscal responsibility like a giant diesel monster truck, just show them the video, I think it sells itself. Toyota is doing their 100 Cars for Good campaign right now...if you can make a special request, mine would be whatever brand of super truck this happens to be.

Welcome to the future of community preparedness.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2013/10/ghe-o-rescue/

Thanks to Aaron Mason for passing this piece of awesome along.

The Great Shakeout

On Oct 17th almost 18 million people will participate in one of the largest organized annual preparedness events in the US, the Great Shakeout.

India's well coordinated preparedness and aggressive early recovery cleanup illustrates the power of having plans and how exercising those plans can reduce the loss of life and minimize confusion around roles and responsibilities in the aftermath of an event. The Great Shakeout is an opportunity to spend some time thinking through the "what if's" of an earthquake. It's a chance to take an honest look at your kit (if you have one) and figure out what still needs to be added, as well as going over the plan: where to meet and when, collecting copies of important documents, etc... I'm convinced that one of the main reasons people ignore preparedness is because it's uncomfortable to think about so it's pushed from our minds. This delay only works against our best interests when an earthquake strikes. While the event gives individuals a chance to take stock, it's also an opportunity for municipalities to go over their planning and think through how preparedness can be better messaged and what response and recovery will look like between local and state partners, etc...

The Shakeout is an opportunity to ask the "stupid" questions, to figure out what you'll do, and take some time to learn about what your village, city, or town plans to do to help minimize loss of life and property.

Are you in an area where there is the risk of and Earthquake? Are you ready? www.shakeout.org